The strongest El Niño on record looms, triggering global warnings of reduced yields for natural fragrance ingredients

The strongest El Niño on record looms, triggering global warnings of reduced yields for natural fragrance ingredients

A super El Niño event, described by meteorological authorities as "the strongest since systematic monitoring began," is pushing the most vulnerable link in the global fragrance supply chain—natural fragrance raw materials—toward production cuts and price hikes.

On October 9, the National Climate Center confirmed that a super El Niño had officially developed in September 2026, classified as an Eastern Pacific type, with the warmest sea temperatures centered over the eastern equatorial Pacific. Over the next three months, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to continue rising, peaking in late autumn and early winter. This means that plant-based raw material zones critical to the global perfume industry—from May roses in Grasse to vanilla pods in Madagascar—will simultaneously face triple threats of extreme heat, drought, and intense rainfall over the next six to twelve months.

I. Meteorological Outlook: Sea temperature index breaks historical 3°C threshold, peak expected in November

The intensity of this El Niño has already exceeded the experience range of meteorological agencies.

According to monitoring data from the National Climate Center, the equatorial central and eastern Pacific entered El Niño conditions in May 2026, after which sea temperature anomalies rose sharply: the average anomaly during summer (June–August) reached 2.09°C, peaking at 2.59°C in August. By September, the weekly anomalies for the first five pentads (five-day periods) were 2.70°C, 2.94°C, 3.01°C, 3.01°C, and 3.02°C respectively—marking the first time in recorded history that pentad- and decadal-scale sea temperature indices have surpassed 3°C.

"Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to continue rising gradually, with the peak sea temperature anomaly occurring around November, reaching 3.2°C to 3.5°C, forming the strongest super El Niño event ever recorded," said Chao Qingchen, director of the National Climate Center, at a press conference hosted by the China Meteorological Administration.

For reference, only three super El Niño events have occurred in recorded history: 1982/1983, 1997/1998, and 2014/2016. This current event is expected to rapidly weaken and end by spring and summer 2027, but its climatic impacts will be significantly delayed. Chao emphasized that typical strong El Niño effects often peak the following year, meaning that summer 2027 could see more intense and widespread heatwaves.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in its Global Seasonal Climate Update, issued similarly dire assessments: sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific are projected to reach record highs between October and December 2026, peaking in December, with near-certainty that El Niño will persist until February 2027.

For China, the impact pathway is clear: during autumn (October–November), precipitation will be above normal across much of central and eastern China, with some areas in Jiangnan and eastern southwestern regions seeing increases of 50% to 80%. Risks of extreme rainfall, flash floods, landslides, and mudslides will be high. In winter (December 2026–February 2027), temperatures will generally be higher than usual, although cold front frequency may slightly increase, leading to greater temperature fluctuations. Feng Licheng, researcher at the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, noted that this winter will overall exhibit characteristics of a warm winter.

II. China’s Position: Both a producer and a supply chain hub

China's situation amid this climate shock is particularly unique—it is both a major producer of natural fragrances and a key node in the global supply chain.

Hengzhou in Guangxi, known as the "World Capital of Jasmine," cultivates jasmine over 180,000 mu (about 12,000 hectares), producing over 150,000 tons of fresh jasmine flowers annually—accounting for more than 60% of the world’s and 80% of China’s total jasmine supply. In July 2026, Hengzhou experienced prolonged heavy rains, causing multiple reservoirs to face emergency conditions and flooding half of the jasmine fields. Local practitioners estimated that jasmine flooded by the disaster would not bloom until September or October at the earliest after receding water levels, and even then, cooler temperatures would reduce both yield and quality.

Yunnan is one of China's largest provinces for spice cultivation, with over 400 species of aromatic plants discovered or introduced. The province’s spice crop area exceeds 4 million mu—over 30% of the national total—and its eucalyptus oil, citronella oil, and laurel leaf oil hold significant positions in the global fragrance market. Guangxi, meanwhile, is a core production region for star anise and cinnamon. Yunnan, Guangxi, and Hainan have been designated as key national bases for natural fragrance raw materials.

At the same time, China’s position within the global supply chain is rising. Jinxī County in Jiangxi, known as the "Capital of Chinese Fragrance," holds 80% of the global market share in natural linalool and natural camphor powder—meaning one out of every twenty premium perfumes worldwide uses ingredients from Jinxī. In the first half of 2026, Jinxī sold 65,000 tons of fragrance and flavor products, generating 6.7 billion yuan in revenue, with exports accounting for around 30%.

However, this also means growing risk exposure. Industry analysis suggests that extreme weather events driven by climate change are already posing real challenges to the stability of raw material supplies. Short-term price volatility of 10% to 15% could result from reduced yields of certain major raw materials. For specialty fragrances heavily reliant on imports—such as sandalwood oil and agarwood extracts from specific origins—the price risks are even more direct.

III. Industry Response: Three Breakthrough Pathways

Faced with this “battle for the sense of smell,” companies across the supply chain have begun taking action, focusing on three main strategies.

1. First is locking in prices and volumes. The window for sourcing natural fragrances is narrowing. Leading perfume groups such as L'Oréal, Coty, and Firmenich have launched vertical integration strategies—investing in their own plantations, establishing long-term procurement agreements with local cooperatives, and adopting climate-smart agricultural technologies to strengthen supply chain resilience. For smaller brands, signing long-term contracts and building strategic reserves of key raw materials lasting three to six months before prices fully adjust remains the most practical step today.
2. Second is developing alternative formulation plans. Preparing in advance for “natural identical” substitutes for natural ingredients—rather than scrambling to switch scents when shortages occur—is essential. Delayed substitution can directly compromise a product’s olfactory identity, creating risks far greater than price increases alone. However, it should be noted that differences between natural and synthetic compounds exist objectively at the sensory level; any substitute must undergo thorough evaluation and stability testing.
3. Third is bio-manufacturing. This is widely seen as the most disruptive long-term solution. By using metabolic engineering to create microbial cell factories, rare plant-derived fragrance molecules such as sandralol, ambroxan, and irone can be produced at scale through fermentation, eliminating dependence on specific climatic conditions and wild plant resources while avoiding risks of pesticide and heavy metal contamination. Currently, China has achieved ton-scale replacement of vanillin via bioproduction, and fermentation routes have reduced production costs for certain fragrance molecules by approximately 25% to 40%. Several hundred-ton-scale biosynthetic fragrance production lines have already been deployed.

Notably, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Developing New Quality Productivity" on October 9, explicitly identifying bio-manufacturing as a future industrial direction and proposing measures such as establishing enterprise R&D reserve funds and increasing the tax deduction ratio for R&D expenses. These policies provide strong support for achieving self-reliance and control over fragrance raw materials.

IV. Outlook: Rising Costs, But Market Growth Outpaces Them

An important backdrop is the continued rapid expansion of demand. China’s fragrance market has grown at a compound annual rate of 18.9% over the past five years, reaching a domestic market size of 28.6 billion yuan in 2026—surpassing Japan for the first time to become the largest market in the Asia-Pacific region. Yet penetration remains below 5%, significantly lower than the over 50% levels seen in Europe and North America.

This means that the current climate shock is more likely to trigger industry reshuffling than demand contraction: companies with raw material self-sufficiency, pricing power in mid-to-high-end markets, and a clear sustainability narrative will further widen their lead over followers under cost pressures; meanwhile, smaller players dependent on single natural ingredients, lacking bargaining power and alternative supply plans, may be squeezed out.

For professionals in the fragrance industry, the next six months represent a critical window. As one industry insider put it, the question isn't whether climate change will affect scents, but rather when and how severely it will hit—and this time, meteorological agencies have already provided the timeline.